Whether we are talking about driving a car, drinking wine,
or any other routine activity, most of us are not very good at calculating
risk. Life insurance company actuaries devote careers to these sorts of
calculations, but even they will tell you it gets really muddled when assessing
small risks of prematurely dying from everyday endeavors. With nutrition and
lifestyle choices it’s practically impossible. That doesn’t stop us from trying
though, and one approach is unit of measurement called the micromort. A micromort is a one in a million chance of dying (mort from mortality.) If nothing else, it is useful in placing things in
perspective; there’s even an app for tracking your micromorts as you consider
lifestyle choices.
Take scuba diving, for example: 5 micromorts. It is said that 3 glasses of
wine equals eating 100 char-broiled steaks or spending an hour in a coal mine,
for a micromort each. Really? That sounds bad, and frankly didn’t make sense to
me when I heard the term recently. So I decided to look into it.
The term dates to the 1970’s and is attributed to physics
professor Richard Wilson, then at Harvard. I tracked down the original
reference, or at least the earliest I could find, in the journal Technology Review. Interestingly, the
article contains no references but does have a detailed list. For example add a
micromort for traveling 6 minutes by canoe, 10 miles by bicycle, or 300 miles
by car. Smoke 1-1/2 cigarettes or live with a smoker for a month. Spend 2
months in Denver (more cosmic radiation at higher altitude.) Oh and there is
wine – right alongside the risk of living near a nuclear power plant.
If these are all small risks, what is the problem? It’s
this: describing risk this way assumes that it is a linear relationship,
meaning a little is not so bad, a lot really bad. This is true for many of the
choices we make, but we now know that the risk with wine is a J-shaped curve.
Unlike smoking, moderate consumption is less
risky compared to teetotaling. We forgive the professor because we could
not have expected this more nuanced perception in the era before the French
Paradox and all the research that occurred in its wake. But the thinking
pattern persists, and references to wine and its micromort factor continue to
be bandied about. It’s this kind of thinking that underscores policy
recommendations, for example Britain’s chief health officer’s recent admonition
that any amount of drinking is unsafe. Or breast cancer researchers, seeing
only risk and raising alarm without looking at overall health and longevity.
Celebrate National Wine Day
What we need is macro-life, a way of seeing the big picture.
We need to consider quality of living as much as quantity. Today, May 25, has
been designated National Wine Day, and I say cheers to that. And subtract a micromort if you care – spend
it on a plane flight (1000 miles).
Nothing is more useful
than wine for strengthening the body, and also more detrimental to our pleasure
if moderation is lacking.
- Pliny
the Elder
, if the actor can do a maximum of 25 bodyweight squats,
ReplyDelete15 pushups, and 5 chinups, we would use easier versions of those
exercises in circuits.
https://www.ilovewine.com/